In the philistine comments on the main Internet portal of the country tut. by, on forums and in chat rooms - whether under the article on the Komsomolskaya Pravda website or Nasha Niva, an unusual and somewhat boring unanimity is read: no one believes the statements of the authorities and everyone, swearing at something, is eager for change. It is understandable, the people were deceived so many times, they inflated so much and threw painfully that the patience was exhausted by almost everyone.
Those who do not quite justify, as it seems to them, the adequate actions of the authorities, setting this or that rate of the Belarusian ruble, in one way or another, raising the price of gasoline, meat and sugar, are trying to find healthy grain in them and to reason the outraged majority, somehow completely It became not audible. Intellectuals, forcefully and convincingly, prove the inconsistency of the current government with regard to the measures taken and see a way out only in changing the authoritarian regime to a democratic path of government. Ordinary people, who do not understand the economic and political jungles, unequivocally express salt and sugar, and, like the intelligentsia, crave the same thing.
The impression is gloomy: people are tired of experiments and upheavals, but what will happen tomorrow, “after”, draws itself in extremely optimistic tones. (It is also remarkable that, for the most part, those who are not economists or political scientists are not the ones who argue on economic and political topics).
The Libyan option of ridding the Libyan people of the tyrant Gaddafi, when the Western democracies already divided the country into oil-bearing sectors, and people die in the country every day, color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, which resulted in bitter disappointment of the people and frank mess in these countries, the third decade of building a fair national society in fraternal Russia, with its corruption, poverty and social instability, does not seem to be talked about to a simple Belarusian. He still, for some unknown elementary logic of unearthly astrology, firmly believes that after a change of power in the country, everything will change for the better overnight. As if by magic.
This simple and sincere to tears man in the street, taking up to talk about the fate of his country, remembers everything: the great history of the Belarusian people, and its culture, and its hard share. With enviable persistence, he refers to the West with his version of democracy and undoubted in the eyes of the simple Belarusian Dolce Vita without difficulties and problems, the most weighty argument for which is something like “There are three thousand euro wages” or something like that. As if he had just returned from what Edinburgh or Karlsruhe, which is what solid, not unsubstantiated, idea is about.
But the experience of countries similar in government, as well as their recent history, suggests to him, they just scream into an ear curled up into a pipe that a full-fledged transfer of power, when it was possible to transfer power from one state leader to another, did not happen so often. And there was absolutely no such thing that a calm change of one state system to another took place, from which everyone only benefited. Periods of change of power, regimes, social systems - what the Chinese called the time of change and warned: if you want to curse someone, wish him to live during a change.
The changes that the majority here eagerly craves, even with the smoothest transfer of power, which is unlikely in itself, will be much more painful than it imagines. By the way, more experienced Russians, tired of a twenty-year transition from rotten socialism to capitalism with a human face, are warning about this, immature in political squabbles of the Belarusians. And the buffer forces to mitigate this disaster - as strong politicians, competent economists, new managers in a country where the nomenklatura elite is used only to obey and execute someone else's will from above, is not yet visible. As before, the only buffer and salvation at such a time will be the patient character of the “pamyarkovny” Belarusian.
In this case, the majority of Belarusians are in favor of changing not only the current government, but also changing the course of development. Socialist stagnation, when everything is calm and stable, albeit poor, has bothered them worse than bitter radish, and they shout in favor of liberalization, privatization, democratization, vaguely imagining what it is.
Some are going to join the elder brother - Russia, naively believing that Russia will help even more, and its interests in relation to Belarus are based exclusively on an altruistic basis - no self-serving goals. Poland beckons others, it does not give rest to the former imperial past, in which Belarusian lands occupied a significant part. Still others rely on Europe and the United States, seduced by dubious freedoms, forgetting that the West, for the sake of these freedoms, has been banging its bumps for hundreds of years and is still buried in social and inter-ethnic problems. The fourth gather together like Turkmenistan or North Korea, forgetting that the world is a small village long ago and build their lives on their own. Without minerals, on the remains of still Soviet technologies, trailing in their competitiveness in all the years by thirty.
Many Belarusians for some reason do not see that the political field in the country is bare, burned out. With the exception of one figure - one warrior in this field. The others, no matter how puffy they were, no matter what candidates they considered themselves, no matter what good intentions they had about the political future of the country, were simply systematically oppressed for the whole existence of independent Belarus, they did not develop political will, they did not have enough experience untenable. And now they hope that the goodness of intentions and an honest name will miraculously compensate for this shortcoming (as the poet N., for example, is going to revive Belarus, I honestly, completely incomprehensible. Candidates like him, honest and noble, filled with the best ambitions, but lacking political experience and will, and there are those good intentioners who, with the bones of innocent fools, can pave the way you know where).
The current politicians have been skillfully using for centuries the well-established political mechanism of the Roman Caesars and Soviet leaders: after coming to power, first of all get rid of competitors. The second is from unreliable ones. The third - from all who you do not like. Who in the bare political field will be able to head the new government, form a parliament, privatize and liberalize the industrial sector, modernize the once strong machine-building complex, breathe hope into agriculture, establish full-fledged relations with the West, and attract investment?
Ardent opponents of the current government, thirsting for democratic changes and freedoms, you should not throw off the obvious from the shields: at that fine time when the final transition from the current regime to the new system takes place and stable democracy reigns with all the implied attributes, neither I nor you will have to live nor him. After the possible withdrawal of the current government, which voluntarily does not intend to take the reins of power, which means that a smooth transition from one form of government to another, from one leader to another is unlikely, another crisis will occur, akin to the one that was here after the collapse of the Union, and it will not drag out for one year. And since there is no single powerful and symbolic figure, in a country where people have long been accustomed to scolding and relying on one person, there is not and cannot be yet, you just have to remember a calm and full life.